Here are some numbers that I found to follow up on my anecdotal  shopping bag count of last weekend. I wanted to put the story into the online retailing context.  The Forester numbers say it the most. 45% plan to spend less this Christmas season due to the economic state of the world. Wow that is a huge drop in spending year over year. For the online retailer a number to watch this year is the shipping costs. According to a recent Paypal survey 40% of the people that abandoned their shopping carts did so because of of high shipping costs. In another poll by BIGresearch 60% said that free shipping was very important to them. I know personally that I stopped using Ebay last year due to merchants completely gouging the customer with expensive shipping fees.  I think that if you want to avoid the empty carts online this year you need keep the shipping costs aggressively low if not free all together.

Will shoppers spend more or less this year?

• 26% of consumers plan to spend less, 11% expect to spend more, and 63% about the same. “For the first time I am predicting flat to declining sales for the holiday season,” stated Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst, The NPD Group, Inc. NPD Group Holiday 2008 Survey

• 35% plan to spend less, 6% will spend more this year, 50% the same. Nielsen, October 2008

• 45% will buy less, up from 20% last year. Forrester Research, October 2008

• 59% will spend less, citing food prices (73%), energy prices (69%) the economy (61%) and job uncertainty (18%) as reasons. 11% are still paying off last year’s holiday purchases. Deloitte, October 2008

• 52% plan to buy fewer gifts, an average of 11-15 gifts compared to 16+ last year. e-tailing group, October 2008

• Over 91% plan to purchase the same number or somewhat more gifts online; that’s equal to last year’s levels. e-tailing group, October 2008

How does price play in importance?

• 83% of consumers report that price will influence their gift buying. e-tailing group, October 2008

• 60% say that lower prices, sales and special values will dictate where they shop (surveyed mid-September before the stock market’s major downturn). NPD Group, September 2008

• 70% will shop sale items more often and 53% have become less brand loyal in favor of less expensive brands. Morpace, October 2008

• 73% will shop where they can find the best value for their money. 72% will look for low prices. Convenient location, quality and selection of merchandise, and customer service/experience all ranked lower. Deloitte, October 2008

• 66% will use coupons and spend more time shopping around for bargains. Consumer Electronics Association

Is free shipping important?

Free shipping (95%) and sales/specials (83%) top of the list of what influences online gift buying. e-tailing group, October 2008

• The No. 1 customer reason for not buying more online is the high cost of shipping (78%). e-tailing group, October 2008

• 75% prefer to shop with online retailers that offer free shipping. 58% claim that shipping prices deter them from shopping online. Forrester Research, October 2008